The global semiconductor industry will continue to witness a revenue slump until 2013, forecasts research firm Gartner. The firm also said that worldwide semiconductor sales are projected to generate $194.5 billion in 2009.

The primary reasons are the recession and the weakening of DRAM business.

DRAM players have lost more than $13 billion over the past couple of years. The slump in DRAM business has been a concern for quite some time. DRAM suppliers have lost more than $13 billion in 2007 and 2008. Some DRAM companies are starting to go bankrupt and other leading suppliers are substantially reducing their supply. Memory, specifically DRAM, is still a wild card in the semiconductor forecasts for 2009.

Gartner semiconductor projections in December 2008 indicated a decline of 16 per cent throughout 2009.

The industry is expected to return to positive growth in 2010, growing 7.5 per cent, followed by additional growth in 2012.

Even with three years of increased revenue, the semiconductor industry might fail to generate revenue totals of 2008. In 2012, the worldwide semiconductor revenue is projected to reach $253.4 billion, still below 2008 revenue of $256.4 billion.

Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner said, “We believe that the financial crisis has reset the semiconductor market.” 

“After the 2001 recession, in which semiconductor sales plummeted by a record 32.5 per cent, semiconductor sales took about four years to get back to 2000 levels,” Lewis added. 

Lewis continued, “The rebound after this recession will be similar to that in 2001 because there will be three years of modest growth after the worst year. However, we see a difference in year four, where we expect another overcapacity situation for the industry, especially in DRAM, because of significant manufacturing investments made in the second and third years of the recovery,” Lewis said.

Gartner has removed solar revenue from its semiconductor forecast because solar cells were not considered as traditional semiconductor devices. X

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